The Price of Oil, the Price of Gas

I was wondering how much of the global oil market is (was) supplied by Russia, given the run-up in prices. Have the recent price increases been warranted?

Economist Dean Baker finally gave me the answer on March 12:

Russia had been exporting around 5 million barrels a day, which comes to a bit less than 6 percent of world production.

Then he went on to say this:

Before there were serious fears of the Ukraine War, the price of oil was around $70 a barrel. If we need to reduce demand by 6 percent to offset the loss of Russian oil, with an elasticity of -0.15, prices would have to rise by around 40 percent. That would take oil prices to around $98 a barrel, about 10 percent BELOW their current level [on March 12].

Since then, the price has been dropping to just about that $100 per barrel Baker predicted, and yet: 

The price of oil dropped 20% over the last 7 days [as of March 14]. The price of gasoline went up.
John Oberlin @OMGno2trump

To quantify that illogical change with a historical comparison in adjusted dollars, there's this from Qasim Rashid, Esq. @QasimRashid:

Oil & Avg Gas $ June 2008:
• Oil: $181.58/barrel
• Gas: $4.10/gallon

Oil & Avg Gas $ Mar 2022:
• Oil: $99.76/barrel
• Gas: $4.32/gallon

If you're blaming anyone but greedy oil companies for their price gouging—you've bought into propaganda that hurts you more than anyone else.

A week earlier, when the oil price was still at the higher level, there were other historical and current comparisons to make. It won't be a big surprise to anyone who lived through the past few decades, let alone the 1970s, but these prices are not the highest of all time:

For consumer spending on gasoline to reach 1975-1980 levels, national gas prices would have to exceed $10 a gallon.
Derek Thompson @DKThomp (March 8)

I remember when gas prices were over $4.50 *14 years* ago! That’s $5.88 in today’s dollars. But automakers spent the last decade selling people on heavier, faster cars instead of marketing efficiency.
Carter Rubin (March 5)

Crazy how people freak over an 11-cent increase on a gallon of gas, but yawn over climate breakdown
Peter Kalmus @ClimateHuman (March 5)

Everyone who bought a land yacht in the past 10 years for no reason except self-indulgence (and giving in to advertising) has no excuse to complain. 

It's obvious that gas prices will always go back up at some point, so even if you don't care about climate change as a reason to buy a fuel-efficient vehicle, if you do care about how much you pay for things, act like you have an attention span longer than two weeks.