New Crime Numbers

The FBI today published the crime statistics from 2017. John Roman, a researcher at NORC, then posted this thread on the findings, for those of us who like facts:

2017 crime numbers are out today from the FBI. They suggest we are at a violence plateau with rates about where they were a decade ago. There is no crime wave of course, but also the long-term downward trend seems stalled. Deeper thoughts follow.

First, be a little wary of the headlines. Headline #1 will be that murder is down in the United States. It is, but there were only 129 fewer homicides in a country of 315 million. It’s a very small win.

Headline #2 is that rape/sexual assault rates increased. DOJ/FBI revised the definition in 2016 so it’s hard to interpret. But, and I see this is subnational data, it is most likely that there is slow increase over the last several years. This should be a top concern.

More encouraging is the substantial decline in robbery. Robbery is obviously bad (armed taking of property from a person) but also leads to unintended homicides. Robbery is also a fair layperson measure of ‘street crime’ and general dangerousness. It is in long-term decline.

By contrast, aggravated assaults (think street fight, bar fight, shooting, DV) are up a little. My policy guesses: increasingly easy availability of guns and an increased societal tolerance for heavy drinking are leading causes.

I don’t put a lot of stock in property crime numbers, too variable. But, the seeming end of the long-term decline in motor vehicle theft is troubling. Today, this is an indicator of organized criminal activity, joyriding days are way behind us.

Caution: in summarizing the data the FBI has a lot of 5-year comparisons to 2013. This is a little misleading as a headline as 2013 was the low point for violence in the last 40+ years. Better to also discuss a longer term trend as well.

Wrap: worries that the US is moving toward another national crime wave are not supported. But, there is a lot here to be concerned about. The US has plateaued as a very violent society compared to other developed countries.

Thanks for writing that up, John.