Wednesday, March 16, 2016

Two Votes Short

My favorite scenario for Donald Trump's quest for the Republican nomination for president: that he ends up two votes short of the 1,237 he needs.

Why two votes?

Because last night in Illinois, two of his delegates lost their races in areas where other Trump delegates won easily. The only differences between these delegates and winners were their names:

  • Nabi Fakroddin
  • Raja Sadiq
So some of Trump's voters refused to vote for a Trump delegate with a name that sounded too "Muslim" or "foreign" or "black." So it will be perfect justice if he misses the first ballot by just that number of delegates.

Though I bet the only effect of this outcome is that people with the "wrong" kinds of names will be prohibited from running as delegates in states where delegates' names are part of the balloting process.


One thing I'm thinking about on the Trump front: What will the Republican National Convention, scheduled for mid-July, look like? It will either be Trump as a triumphal nominee or Trump ousted through some clever maneuvering, which it seems could lead to a white riot. In Cleveland, a black-majority city recently the site of several high-profile, consequence-free police killings.

On that note, this from from Doug Muder at the Weekly Sift:
One advantage I believe the Democrats are going to have this fall: Our convention is going to be inspiring and heart-warming. President Obama will get the send-off he deserves, the loser of the nomination struggle will make an impassioned speech about the importance of uniting to win, the VP will be somebody we can take pride in, and the entire week will highlight the positive human values that Democrats share.

By contrast, even if the Republicans manage to unite behind Trump and avoid a scorched-earth battle, their convention is going to be about scapegoating and raising anger, probably worse than the public-relations disasters of 1964 and 1992. The unpredictable, barely coherent ramble that makes a Trump rally speech so entertaining is going to play badly as an acceptance speech. It’s not going to be pretty.
Remember, the RNC happens first; the Democrats meet in Philadelphia, the City of Brotherly Love, the following week.

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