Iowa Turnout, an Alternate Hypothesis

Some commentators are confounded by what they perceive as low turnout in Iowa, and say that Sanders' claim that he will win by turning out new voters was shown to be hollow. How could turnout be flat from 2016 if he's building a movement, they say.

But this chart showing the age breakdown of Iowa's turnout puts that in a different light:


As Eldon Katz put it on Twitter,

While overall turnout stagnated there was a 65% increase for voters under 25! More of them voted for Bernie than Buttigeg, Warren, and Biden COMBINED

There was a notable decrease in voters in my age demographic, 50–64, and a slight decrease among those 65 and over. As this story from Iowa Starting Line puts it, that lack of turnout may mean something different than lack of enthusiasm: it may mean "We'll vote for whoever the candidate is against Mafia Mulligan, so we don't need to go to the caucus."

That makes sense to me. If you're going to point for whoever the candidate is, why spend several hours of your life in a gym being counted again and again? If it had been a primary, the story might have been different.

We'll see in New Hampshire.