tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7162206974728931335.post1032603941623864827..comments2024-03-28T08:20:11.686-05:00Comments on Daughter Number Three: Thinking Outside the EnvelopeDaughter Number Threehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08171356533232458827noreply@blogger.comBlogger6125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7162206974728931335.post-42974406158499174672010-11-28T20:43:59.658-06:002010-11-28T20:43:59.658-06:00Yes, right. I see Marilyn vos Savant reiterated he...Yes, right. I see Marilyn vos Savant reiterated her answer today in Parade, I imagine because she's gotten so many letters arguing with her.Daughter Number Threehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08171356533232458827noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7162206974728931335.post-23782075305169146872010-11-28T20:35:52.432-06:002010-11-28T20:35:52.432-06:00Oops. Sorry, I mis-calculated. The odds the the ...Oops. Sorry, I mis-calculated. The odds the the cash envelope is/was on the table is 75% and the odds that you chose the cash envelope is 25%. Add those together to make 100%. If you put yours back on the table and mix them up and re choose then it's 50/50 to again total out to be 100%.Ross Brownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09955237287381716584noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7162206974728931335.post-63211918896371581102010-11-28T20:09:32.311-06:002010-11-28T20:09:32.311-06:00Yes, you should switch, but the probabilities that...Yes, you should switch, but the probabilities that you mentioned are incorrect. After removing all but one envelope, the probability of the envelope on the table containing the cash is 50%. (It's on the table or it's the one you already chose.) BUT, the probability of the cash being in the envelope you picked is just 25%. (you picked one of the four possibles).Ross Brownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09955237287381716584noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7162206974728931335.post-59054175761861777022010-09-22T13:07:17.424-05:002010-09-22T13:07:17.424-05:00I would stick with the one I possessed and then gr...I would stick with the one I possessed and then growl-lunge for the one on the table too. Then I would increase my odds to 100%. <br /><br />Kobayashi Maru! (sort of)Carmellahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16495293007097058017noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7162206974728931335.post-18038252104010866812010-09-21T12:23:41.356-05:002010-09-21T12:23:41.356-05:00After Googling a bit I figured it out (thanks to W...After Googling a bit I figured it out (thanks to Wikipedia and some math forums). Thanks for the education!Beckyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09963064478685341998noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7162206974728931335.post-31902875469256262212010-09-21T11:53:47.834-05:002010-09-21T11:53:47.834-05:00I still don't understand. Didn't the envel...I still don't understand. Didn't the envelope you picked up also absorb some of the percentage that was left when the 2 empty envelopes were removed? It is essentially just taking away those 2; it shouldn't matter where the other 2 are, should it? Maybe my brain just isn't functioning correctly today.Beckyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09963064478685341998noreply@blogger.com