In Case You've Been Wondering What Minnesota Democrats Think

Remember the Democrats' nonscientific "bean poll" from the Minnesota State Fair in late August? My eyeball-level count found a strong majority for Warren, followed by a close race for second between Klobuchar and Buttigieg, Sanders in fourth, and Biden in fifth.

Now there's a real survey, and among Minnesota Democrats, these are the first choices for the Democratic nomination:

• Warren 25%
• Klobuchar: 15%
• Joe Biden: 14%
• Bernie Sanders: 13%
• Pete Buttigieg: 7%

So that's not extremely different from the Fair poll. The biggest difference is how much Buttigieg has faded, when he's supposedly coming on strong in Iowa.

According to MinnPost, "The poll was jointly conducted in Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania by the Kaiser Family Foundation (KFF) and the Cook Political Report."

Even more interesting, Warren’s lead among Minnesota DFLers actually grew, and Biden dropped to third place when the surveyers combined first and second choices, as follows:

• Warren: 43%
• Klobuchar: 25%
• Sanders: 24%
• Biden: 21%
• Buttigieg: 16%
• Kamala Harris: 8%

Mulligan's disapproval/approval numbers in the four states are also interesting:

• Minnesota: 58-42
• Michigan: 59-41
• Pennsylvania: 61-39
• Wisconsin: 57-42

But here's one WTF table for Minnesota's Demoractic organizers:


Yes, that table shows that Minnesota Republicans have more enthusiasm to vote in 2020 compared to 2016 than Democrats do... unlike the other three states. And while the Minnesota Republican enthusiasm number is higher than the other three states, the Democratic enthusiasm number is also significantly lower than the other three states.

Minnesota's rural voters are also the most supportive of Mulligan among rural voters in the four states.

The whole report can be seen here.